Saturday, 28 May 2011

Sensex may remain choppy in the near term

Stock market closure on Monday snatched smiles from the faces of many investors who were waiting for the benchmark index to shoot up further for a long time. Sensex closed over 300 points down and was trading below 18K level.
Pressure of sell off was so strong that all the thirteen sectoral indices ended in the red. Added to that, all the 30 index-based counters also closed with sharp to moderate losses.
Weak show by global markets and sell –off of blue-chips led by banking companies led the Stock market dwell in red, moving back towards the 17,500 level.
Although the pressure in the stock market was due to the bearish global markets, analysts are of the opinion that market is propelled by all round selling boosted by global panic spread by persistent debt crisis in Greece. There is nervousness among the investors due to the panic in the environment. Further, foreign funds and their losing confidence in the Indian market in the wake of higher inflation, fears of further rise in interest rates and alleged involvement of corporates in the 2G scam also pulled the markets down.
Talking about the losing confidence of the FIIs, many more analysts opined, "FIIs have turned into net sellers on a consistent basis after a long period."
Technically speaking, the broad selling in the stock market looks quite sustainable. At this point of buying it becomes quite predictable that the psychological 18,500 level will not turn out to be a sour dream.
The downward pressure may continue due to consistent pressure both on both domestic and global fronts. But low crude oil prices and slight ease in inflation are something that keeps elevating the market sentiment.
India's food price index rose 7.70% and the fuel price index climbed 12.25% in the year to April 30, government data on Thursday showed. In the previous week, annual food and fuel inflation stood at 8.53% and 13.53%, respectively. The primary articles price index was up 11.96%, compared with an annual rise of 12.11% a week earlier.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) too raised interest rates this month for the ninth time since last March. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had raised the interest rate on savings bank accounts by 50 basis points (bps), or half a per cent, from 3.5% to 4%, which will boost returns to savers hurt by rising inflation but squeeze profits of banks.
To wind it up, it won’t be incorrect to say that market is still very vulnerable and any bad news from across the globe can bring it down. The short term range for the market will remain between 17500 to 18500.
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